Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn has field of nine

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/07/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rebel Stakes runner-up Noble's Promise tops a field of nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls for Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/8-mile race has a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

Owned by Chasing Dreams Racing, the colt will start from post three with Robby Albarado returning to ride. Noble's Promise is trained by Ken McPeek and is 2-1 in the morning-line.

"I'm pretty sure that this horse can handle running here," said assistant trainer Walter Blum, Jr., "then back in the (Kentucky) Derby in three weeks. He's a very tough horse. He had a nick on his ankle after winning the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. But it didn't really stop him before the Breeders' Cup, where he was third."

Noble's Promise has won three of seven career starts for $793,500. In 2008 he won the Fitz Dixon Stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity Stakes. Following his third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile he was second in the CashCall Futurity to Lookin At Luck who won the Rebel Stakes.

Blum, who was the regular exercise rider for 2008 Kentucky Derby champ Big Brown, favorably compares the two colts.

"He's just as good, if not better," Blum said of Noble's Promise. "He doesn't have the bad feet that Big Brown had, but that's what made him special, in that he overcame so much. He (Big Brown) was better suited for the turf, so that made his wins on the dirt special, too. Noble can run on grass, poly or dirt. He could probably run over broken glass."

Super Saver, the third-place finisher in the Tampa Bay Derby, has been made the 9-5 favorite for the 74th Arkansas Derby. The three-year-old colt will start from the inside post with Calvin Borel riding.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is owned by WinStar Farm. The colt was making his 2010 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was the 3-2 favorite. After setting the early pace he faded down the stretch to finish behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams.

Last year he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs after finishing fourth at Belmont Park in the Champagne. Super Saver has earned $201,232 in five career starts with two wins.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas sends out Dublin in the Arkansas Derby. Third in the Rebel, Dublin will break from post two with Terry Thompson in the saddle. The chestnut colt is the third choice at 7-2.

Owned by Robert Baker and William Mack, Dublin began the year by finishing second to Conveyance in Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes. The colt has earned $308,623 with two wins in seven starts. His only stakes victory was the Hopeful at Saratoga last September.

Here is the complete field for the Arkansas Derby in post position order: Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 9-5; Dublin, Terry Thompson, 7-2; Noble's Promise, Robby Albarado, 2-1: Northern Giant, Victor Espinoza, 8-1; Uh Oh Bango, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1; New Madrid, Abel Castellano, Jr., 20-1; Berberis, Aaron Gryder, 30-1; Line of David, Jon Court, 15-1 and Pulsion, Corey Nakatani, 15-1.

The Arkansas Derby will be televised on NBC along with the Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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