25th-ranked Crimson set sights on Tigers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Princeton, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked Harvard Crimson will look to add onto their best start in school history as they head to Jadwin Gym to take on the dangerous Princeton Tigers in Ivy League action.

This will be the first of two scheduled meetings between the Crimson and Princeton this season. The Tigers hold a 127-39 lead in the all-time series. Harvard is currently in sole possession of first place in the conference with a 7-0 league record, while Princeton is 3.5 games back with a 3-3 mark in Ivy League action.

Harvard basketball has never had the spotlight shining on it like has this season. While alum Jeremy Lin was making national headlines with a sensational performance in the NBA, Harvard continued its success on Friday as it downed the Penn Quakers 56-50 in Philadelphia to pick up their ninth win in a row. Harvard displayed its excellent defense against the Quakers, and forced Penn's star point guard Zack Rosen to go 6-of-21 from the floor. The Crimson's only two losses this season have come to Connecticut and Fordham, both on the road. Head coach Tommy Amaker led the squad to some impressive victories this season, including triumphs over Florida State, UCF, and Saint Joseph's. While scoring 65.7 ppg on the offensive end, the Harvard Crimson ranked third in the nation in scoring defense with an allowed average of just 53.6 ppg.

Corbin Miller, who averages 3.4 ppg this season, came up big off the bench for Harvard on Friday night as he scored 17 points in 18 minutes to push his team past Penn. Kyle Casey contributed 15 points in the victory while Keith Wright grabbed a team-high 13 rebounds. Laurent Rivard leads the team in scoring with 11.3 ppg, while Keith Wright carries averages of 10.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Brandyn Curry controls the offense and hands out 5.0 assists per outing.

Princeton is going to be a very difficult opponent for Harvard. The Tigers are only 12-10 overall, but they have picked up some surprising victories along the way, including road wins over Florida State and Rutgers. Head coach Mitch Henderson's squad defeated Dartmouth 59-47 on Friday night to add their second win in three tries. The Tigers carry a scoring offense average of 64.0 ppg while they allow opponents to score 61.9 ppg.

Ian Hummer is pacing the Tigers with 16.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Douglas Davis is second on the team with 13.6 ppg and has hit a team-high 59 three-pointers. Davis led the charge on Friday with 20 points on 7-of-13 shooting from the floor. Brendan Connolly added 10 points in 15 minutes off the bench in the contest. Ian Hummer will need to completely bounce back after a terrible 0-of-11 shooting night against Dartmouth.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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